The Changing Winds of Fortune

I've been talking more recently about the Obama/Hillary/Edwards axis. That is as it should be, because of my party affiliation. But I was born and bread a Republican. I went door to door for Nixon as a 14 year old in 1972. My Father was Chairman of the Siskiyou County Republican Central Committee in the mid 1960s. I voted for Republicans in 1976 and 1980. And my Mother is still a die-hard Republican, as are my wife's family. So, I do have interests int he other party!
I find it extremely interesting what is happening there. The Huckabee win has upset the balance. Mitt Romney has the money and "good looks" but apparently no charm and no fixed positions. Fred08 looks like Fred 1908 instead of Freed 2008. And what happened to Rudy? He still leads the national polls -- like Hillary -- but is becoming increasingly disengaged. No one really cares.
So, what do we have? We have two candidates essentially left standing and only one of them has enough establishment credentials -- despite his Maverick persona -- to get tot he end. So, John McCain, once given up for dead, could with a significant win in NH propel himself forward to the nomination. Republicans like to settle early on a candidate and if John can get a handle on this, he'll quickly get that support. Indeed, reports are that the Establishment is quickly embracing him. It dooms Rudy and it also dooms Huckabee (whom the establishment doesn't like)
That would leave an interesting match up, should trends continue. Hillary has lots of money and friends and will stay in through Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5). She will likely win NY as possibly will Rudy. But Obama will win Illinois, leaving California as the big prize and possibly the deciding vote -- by the way, yes I'm from California. But if trends continue that would set up a McCain-Obama match up.
In the "experience" category McCain obviously wins. As speakers, John isn't the orator that Obama is. Both seem to appeal to Independents (but with Independents leaning Democratic this time that might benefit Obama).
So I think we're left with a generational question. By choosing McCain, we go back to a previous generation. It is a generation that essentially go skipped when we moved from Bush 1 to Clinton. Obama represents a move into the next generation (He's on the cusp of what is often called GenX). The question we would have put before us is this: Do we want to go back or forward?
That will be as interesting a question as whether we want GOP or Democrat!

Comments

Mike L. said…
That is good analysis, but unfortunately you just laid out the one scenario where the democrats can lose. McCain leads Obama in the head to head polls. If you believe those types of polls then it spells trouble. I'm pulling for Huckabee to win the republican nomination. I feel it would be the most sure win for Obama or Edwards. I'm leaving Hilary out of that equation because she is the one candidate who could lose to Romney, McCain or Huckabee.
If McCain gets the nomination and goes up against Obama, the race will be similar to Dole versus Clinton in '96: the worn-out, has-been versus the wildly popular young guy.
Mystical Seeker said…
It is a generation that essentially go skipped when we moved from Bush 1 to Clinton.

The only other Presidential candidate that I am aware of from that generation (those born right before the baby boomers) was Dukakis.
Mike I. I used to worry about McCain vs. any Dem. But over the weekend, he gave the Democratic nominee (and us) the tool to beat him: He said he didn't care if we were in Iraq 100 years. Then he repeated it at a different venue and upped it to 1,000 years. I have the two videos up here:
http://kyfriedpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/01/mccain-wants-to-stay-in-iraq-forever.html

If we replay them before a war-weary nation, McCain is toast.

Huckabee might win if he could pull the Religious Right behind him, but his campaign has little money and his economic populism scares the GOP powers that be. (Limbaugh and co. hate him as much as they hate Hillary!)

Bob, you voted for Republicans in '76 and 80? So, YOU'RE the one responsible for Reaganism. Thanks, pal. :-)

I have voted for Republicans on local offices against some corrupt or incompetent Dems. And I admired the peace work of Oregon Sen. Mark Hatfield (R-OR) so much that I vowed that if he ever ran for Pres. I'd vote for him. (At least, it would taken a Democrat like Bobby Kennedy to make me vote against Mark Hatfield!)
BTW, Obama and I are almost exactly the same age (he's a few months older)--and we are a transition: the tail-end of the Baby Boom and not-quite-the-beginning of GenX. So, we have attitudes and experiences from both groups. If he was a little younger, a little more thoroughly GenX, he'd probably be more cynical and disengaged, rather than so hopeful. GenY and Millenials, the youth of today, are FAR more engaged and progressive than the main body of GenXers--or so I have found as a teacher and organizer.

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