It's Obama's to Lose
It's hard being the front runner -- just ask all the teams that were ranked in the Top 5 in this year's BCS polls! But after last night pundits are beginning to say that this is Obama's race now. The key apparently is this weekend's debates -- which apparently will involve only viable candidates. If he doesn't make a mistake and takes New Hampshire and then South Carolina it will be difficult for Hillary to catch up -- so says Newsweek's Jonathan Alter.
Alter also notes that if Edwards begins to falter badly, he will likely send his supporters to Obama. My sense is that the also-rans will likely do the same. Hillary could make a comeback, but as Alter also points out this front loaded system was designed for the establishment candidate -- Hillary -- to quickly sew things up so she could begin the race for November. It would seem that Obama may be the beneficiary instead!
Alter also notes that if Edwards begins to falter badly, he will likely send his supporters to Obama. My sense is that the also-rans will likely do the same. Hillary could make a comeback, but as Alter also points out this front loaded system was designed for the establishment candidate -- Hillary -- to quickly sew things up so she could begin the race for November. It would seem that Obama may be the beneficiary instead!
Comments
Confidence? Yes! Arrogance or Pride? Don't go there.
As I've watched obama since Thursday evening, he's walked a careful line between confidence that he can win and the arrogance that says I'm the one.
I think it's interesting that Hillary is threatening to get dirty. If she does and she takes Obama down, you're right I think Edwards and McCain are the beneficiaries.
But good point!
I think that Obama is different from Jackson. I never believed Jesse would win. I never believed Sen. Carol Mosely-Braun (D-IL), by then Ambassador Mosely-Braun, had a chance in '04--although I was disturbed that she dropped out BEFORE Iowa. And I always believed that Obama had a real chance to win and still does. (And this may be his only chance because Michelle Obama says that in 4 years their kids and lives are going to be in a different place. If he loses, she doesn't want him to try again in '12.)
But, as Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post an African American, says, while he still thinks it improbable that an African-American can win the White House--Obama has made him realize that it is not impossible. I am not sure that it is still improbable--but we have seen this apparently begin to happen before and fail.
If Obama wins, his victory will be do to the trailblazing of Shirlie Chisholm, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and Carol Mosely-Braun. Maybe even to more conservative African-Americans who considered running for pres. on the GOP ticket (Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice), but became too associated with W's disastrous foreign policy and so stopped. And if he wins, I hope he appoints Bill Richardson as Sec. of State!