An Unfortunate 5 year Anniversary

Today marks the fifth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. It really doesn't matter if things are going better now than a year ago, that security is better in Iraq than it was a year ago due to the surge, at least not in the fuller picture. Yes, violence is down from a year ago and life is returning to something nearing normal. But the real question isn't how are things now, but should we have gone in to Iraq in the first place. George Bush, of course, continues to defend this decision. John McCain, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, and others continue to make the same claims.
Where are we 5 years later? Saddam is out and that's a good thing. But, there still isn't a truly functioning government in Iraq. What we have is a government that is paralyzed by religious, ethnic, and tribal rivalries. We have an entrenched Al-Queda network that wasn't there before the war. We have ethnic and religious minorities under severe duress (Christians were protected by Saddam). Violence is still common, security ebbs and flows, and no real political solution is in place.
Could things have been different had the Pentagon and the President had decided to prosecute a war that was fully manned and well planned? That's possible. Could security have been imposed immediately, rather than letting things spin out of control? Most likely. Did the decommissioning of the army undermine security? Most certainly. Has the "de-Baathification" policy remove important managers and technicians from daily life? Very likely.
All of that being said, the question goes back to whether this was a worth-while enterprise. I think that the decision made in 1991 to not further prosecute the first Gulf War should be seen as a clue. Would Iran be the rising power if Iraq hadn't been destabilized? Would Afghanistan be in the place it's in if we had stayed to finish the job? Is military expansionism the best means of achieving our goals in the world? I think that the answers to all these questions lead to the conclusion that the Iraq War was a mistake then and it is now.
But, we are in there. We broke it, so how will try to fix it? Long term occupation, along the lines proposed by John McCain is not going to work. Our long term presence will only further exacerbate the problem. So, we need to find a way to disengage quickly, orderly, safely, while helping the Iraqi's get back on their feet and take responsibility for their lives.

Comments

Popular Posts