McCain's Bush Problem


Much has been made of John McCain's recent rise in the polls, even as many Democrats wring their hands about a wounded Barack Obama being unable to compete with McCain. I think the first thing to point out here is that the November election is a long way off. Hillary has made things difficult and the GOP hit squads will go after him -- even if John McCain asks them not to.


What John McCain has to worry about is the chain that binds him to the most unpopular President in recent memory. Bush's negatives are worse than Richard Nixon's just before he resigned -- that' s not good. Although McCain will castigate the Bush Administration from time to time (as he did in New Orleans the other day), he has embraced the Bush war plan and the Bush economic policies.


Ron Brownstein writes of McCain's dilemma -- one that I think will hurt him in the long run.


Despite Bush’s collapse, McCain has continued to run competitively in general election polls against both Obama and Clinton. Yet Bush’s epic descent leaves McCain juggling unpalatable options.

In this environment, embracing Bush—even as gingerly as McCain did in his first Bloomberg answer—is like hugging an anchor. “Anybody who could say that first statement, given the mood people are in now,” says Democratic pollster Guy Molyneux, “almost undermines his credibility in saying anything else about the economy.”

But rejecting Bush, as McCain did in his second Bloomberg response, is dangerous, too. That’s partly because it risks further depressing the Republican base. More fundamentally, because McCain, like Bush, has built his economic plan around big tax cuts, portraying Bush’s approach as a failure risks invalidating McCain’s own agenda.

McCain is trying to separate himself from Bush by promising less spending. But the larger message is convergence: McCain has pledged not only to extend the Bush tax cuts but to expand them with about $300 billion annually in further reductions, mostly for corporations. What’s the case for doubling down with more tax cuts if McCain concedes that the Bush strategy hasn’t benefited average families? That admission, as one senior GOP strategist says, “would seem to repudiate much of what you stand for, because you still don’t have a clear demarcation between McCain economics and Bush economics.”



The problem with McCain's message is its math. He's promising to resolve the current financial mess by extending the Bush tax cuts and then cutting taxes even further -- mostly by cutting corporate taxes. Then, to help keep the deficit from spiraling out of control, he talks of spending cuts. What can he cut -- yes there is plenty of excessive spending -- but what will get cut? Promises to cut spending aren't new -- Ronald Reagan talked about it, s did GW, but both spent much more than they took in. Ironically the person who cut spending the most was Bill Clinton. That was then, this is now.

The biggest challenge to McCain economics -- as it is for Bush's -- is the continued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Neither war is being financed by taxes. Instead, we're borrowing from future generations -- because this war of choice was designed not to cost current tax payers anything. Well, McCain plans on pursuing the Bush war effort indefinitely, and thus continue to drain the national coffers. Yes, McCain economics are pretty close to those of George Bush, and you know how well that's going.

Is that a plan that will sell in November? We'll see!

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