Wednesday, April 23, 2008

On to the Next Test

Am I disappointed about yesterday's primary results? Of course. I had hoped that the margin would be closer to six points. Ten points gave Hillary just enough room to crow and plot her next move. Will she ultimately prevail? Likely that will only happen should the Super Delegates decide to give her the nod. She made up some ground last night in delegates and votes, but at the end of the day Obama still leads in both categories by a sizable enough margin that Hillary will have to win out by significant margins. 55-45 isn't going to do it. Her only hope is that Obama implodes, and as nasty as the campaign has been he's not done that. He's had to use his financial resources to overcome her attacks and her built in advantages -- like the Pennsylvania political machine run by Governor Ed Rendell. Don't think that his efforts didn't match Obama's money -- it did and more.
In two weeks -- an electoral eternity -- we will watch as Indiana and North Carolina have their say. North Carolina seems to be fertile ground for an Obama win, and he has a significant lead there. The real "battleground" will be Indiana. Indiana is very similar to Pennsylvania and Ohio, and yet there are other factors at play. Although Evan Baye is backing Hillary, he's not Ed Rendell. In addition, Northwest Indiana is near Illinois, and that should be of help.
So, onward and upward!


haitianministries said...

Barring a decision by the superdelegates to overrule the choice of the voters, the real question is no longer whether or not Obama will win the nomination but how badly he will be hurt in the general election by a continued, drawn out, bloody fight for the nomination.

Some of Clinton's supporters are correct, I think, in pointing out that Obama's failure to "seal the deal" raises questions about his strength in a general election. Though, they've conveniently overlooked the fact that such an argument would necessarily disqualify Clinton herself as a general election candidate as well.

Yes, I have reservations about the Democrats choosing someone who just barely survived the nominating process but, likewise, I have even more reservations about choosing someone who trailed behind in second place for the last four months of the nominating process as well.

My point? Our primary concern should be keeping Obama and the Democratic Party intact so that he can actually win the general election once formally nominated.

Michael Westmoreland-White, Ph.D. said...

See my analysis on Levellers. Currently, polls show Obama leading in Indiana by 7 to 9%. Northern IN is the more populous part of the state. And former Sen. Lee Hamilton (D-IN), whose seat Bayh now occupies, is an Obama supporter.

Not only is Bayh not Rendell, but Indiana is not a machine state as PA is. And Indiana doesn't have "ethnic whites." Obama loses the white vote usually where ethnicity still plays a large role. Where whites are undifferentiated, he does better.

As to my friend, Dan's, fears of a divided party and no "sealing the deal." Remember that the incumbent Party USUALLY has a free ride for some months. If Cheney were running, he wouldn't have to worry about any primaries.

Obama-mania may have peaked too soon--or may be getting a second, more realistic, wind. There is now almost nothing the GOP can throw at Obama that voters haven't already seen--thanks, Hillary. It'll be old news long before Nov.

The first DNC anti-McCain ads air today. Howard Dean and the DNC are not waiting until we have a declared nominee.

And, the fear of a divided party may be overdrawn. Most of Obama's supporters say thay would vote for Hillary and vice versa. And the candidates are finally urging them to do just that--as they should have all along. And the attention beyond super Tues. to states usually neglected has built the Dem. Party and energized the base. KY Dems are excited about a chance to COUNT in a primary--even if there is starting to be weariness over the domination of the airwaves with the campaign--especially the garbage.

Defeating the GOP was NEVER going to be a cakewalk. Dems were foolish to think it would be. But we can beat McCain--even Hillary can, I think.

Pastor Bob Cornwall said...

My hope is that Obama has been toughened up enough by this experience to be ready for November. No one can now say he's not been tested. Of course, Hillary has opened wounds that the GOP will try to exploit.

Obama's problem from the beginning has been one of expectations. He has run on a platform of being different. Hillary has run as an old time politico. Her hope has been that she could bloody him without him fighting back, because if he fought fire with fire she could cry foul and everyone would agree. You saw Obama's dilemma in last week's debate. Hillary piled on each time, but when the issue of Bosnia came up Obama passed. I think that he would be ill-served if he goes negative, but he can't stay above the fray either. Perhaps now he will have been humanized. McCain's identity is similar -- he's a different kind of politician. But he's being tested as well. What McCain has going for him is a cozy relationship with the Press. They love him -- he's part of the fraternity -- and he's been using that to his advantage. The question will be in the fall is whether the Press will be willing to ask the same kinds of questions of him as they ask of Obama.

And I agree that it's not a matter of if he becomes the nominee but when and how battered will he be!