Prognostications while following the money

I'm not given to predictions -- largely because I'm often wrong. I didn't think Hillary Clinton would run in the first place, and yet here she is, duking it out, hoping audaciously that somehow she's going to be the nominee, even though she's behind in delegates, votes, and money. But I think I can bet that the Super delegates won't overturn an Obama lead and give it to her. To do so would likely destroy the party. Indeed, if her plan is to so weaken Obama that he loses in November so she can run in 2012, she will also likely be mistaken.

Her message at this point seems to be -- I alone can get white working class voters (he's been taking in about 35-40%, so you can't say he's not winning over some or that he can't win over others), the reverse side of this message is being heard in the African American community -- we don't count. That message would be disastrous in the fall. So, I don't think the super delegates are going in that route.

The other key is money. Where is it going. We've heard about Obama's fundraising prowess -- heck I've even given some. What is interesting is that former Clinton donors -- the ones that give big amounts -- are starting to migrate to Obama. In fact, in March, the Washington Post reports, 73 former Clinton backers gave the maximum to Obama, while no Obama funders did the reverse. Add to that the report that one of Clinton's "Hill-Raisers" and a Clinton appointed ambassador, has switched sides:

Donors are not the only ones who have made the leap. Gabriel Guerra-Mondragón served as an ambassador to Chile during Bill Clinton's presidency, considered himself a close friend of Sen. Clinton, and became a "Hill-raiser" by bringing in about $500,000 for her presidential bid.

But he had a fitful few weeks as the battle between Clinton and Obama turned increasingly negative. Last week, he decided he had seen enough.

"We're just bleeding each other out," Guerra-Mondragón said when asked why he had decided to join Obama's finance committee. "Looking at it as coldly as I can, I just don't see how Senator Clinton can overcome Senator Obama with delegates and popular votes. I want this fight to be over -- the quicker, the better."

I don't know yet if Indiana and North Carolina will send a message. I hope they do, but we'll have to wait until May 6.