Changing Political Fortunes

With only 2 years before the next presidential election, what does the future hold? Which direction will the country go? For the past two decades we've been going rightward. Maybe that has to do with an aging baby boomer generation settling down and saying no to its earlier flings. But now the children of the baby boomers are beginning to make their claim on our attention. And the question is, what direction will they send us?

E.J. Dionne suggests that an under 30 crowd energized not by Rush but by Stephen Colbert and John Stewart are going left ward. And it is this crowd that helps set the tone for the future. Dionne writes:

Nowhere is the evidence of change more striking than among the young, whose attitudes and behavior are usually leading indicators of social transformation.

In 1984 three exit polls pegged Ronald Reagan's share of the ballots cast by Americans under 30 at between 57 and 60 percent. Reagan-style conservatism seemed fresh, optimistic and innovative. In 2006 voters under 30 gave 60 percent of their votes to Democratic House candidates, according to the shared media exit poll. Conservatism now looks old, tired and ineffectual.

I don't know if Barak Obama will be the next president, but I don't think it will be John McCain either. I'm not sure if Hillary and Al will carry it either. So, it will be interesting to see what happens. But if Dionne is right and the under 30 crowd voted overwhelmingly Democratic, then 2006 may be a hinge year in history.

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