The End of Iranian Theocracy?

I'm under no illusion that the current regime in Iran will fall. The regime has the backing of the Revolutionary Guard, the paramilitary organization -- the Basij -- and the military/police. It has the ability to shut down the press and as many forms of communication as it can. That Twitter and YouTube still are up is a testament to ingenuity, but having a free and open avenue of communication is not at this point possible. We in the West watch, often in horror, but truly unable to do anything. The US doesn't have diplomatic relations -- no ambassadors to recall. All we can do is watch and perhaps issue condemnations.

While the current regime may stay, at least for a time, is it possible that it has lost its legitmacy. The whole premise of the Islamic Republic, from the time that the Ayatollah Khomeini took power, was that Islamic jurists -- clerics -- should have the final say, that they should have the ability to guide the state. The belief was that these jurists had the necessary wisdom needed to keep the state honest and efficient, offering moral guidance. That has always proven to be an illusive vision. But, at least there was the assumption of truth, so that when the Supreme Leader spoke, people gave heed.

This election has demonstrated that the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council are more concerned with keeping power than guiding a nation with wisdom. And thus, the legitimacy of the regime as a religious state has been destroyed.

An excellent article by Fareed Zakaria in Newsweek speaks to this reality. At least in its online version, it carries the title -- "Theocracy and its Discontents." Zakaria writes"

The Islamic Republic might endure but would be devoid of legitimacy. The regime could certainly prevail in this struggle; in fact, that would have to be the most likely outcome. But it will do so by using drastic means—banning all protests, arresting students, punishing senior leaders and shutting down civil society. No matter how things turn out—crackdown, co-optation—it is clear that millions in Iran no longer believe in the regime's governing ideology. If it holds on to power, it will do so like the Soviet Union in the late Brezhnev era, surviving only through military intimidation. "Iran will turn into Egypt," says the Iranian-born intellectual Reza Aslan, meaning a regime in which guns, rather than ideas, hold things together behind a façade of politics.

So, we watch and we wait. The headlines today suggest that the Revolutionary Guard is promising a violent crackdown. I don't doubt that this will be true, for their place in society is related to their tie to the current regime, they are the protectors of the "Revolution." The Revolution against the Shah was long ago betrayed, but the question now is -- how will the people respond? In 1976-1979, they faced down the Shah and won, only to see their vision betrayed. What will happen this time?