Thoughts on Iranian Unrest


The unrest seems to be growing, and a crackdown is underway. But, at the same time there appears to be serious divisions within the ruling clerical group. That the daughter of former President Ayatollah Rafsanjani, and other relatives, suggests that the divide is quickly building. What is interesting is that Rafsanjani chairs the group that has the power to remove the Supreme Leader. At the same time, another senior religious leader, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, has become more bold in his opposition to the recent vote and the leadership of the Supreme Leader -- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Yesterday's protests and clashes has led to deaths, injuries, and numerous arrests. We're also seeing reports of journalists being arrested -- according to the NY Times, 24 have been arrested.

I realize that Republicans, and some Democrats, are criticizing President Obama for his response. They want something bolder, stronger, perhaps more threatening -- more Bush -like. We've tried that in the past, and in this case it probably would not only backfire but undermine the opposition. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad want to make this about foreign influence, including American. This isn't about us, it's about them and their desires. It's quite appropriate for Americans to voice their support and offer their prayers, but the best thing the President can do is be cautious, and let things unfold. It's important to remember that we don't have diplomatic relations with Iran, and so we have little leverage. We also need to remember that the current leadership in Iraq has ties to Iran -- and we need to focus on the Iraqi situation so we can disengage. Getting sucked into the Iranian unrest could damage that process. Indeed, that's what the Iranian opposition is saying to us -- stay away!

So, we can pray, and should pray for all involved. It looks as if a page has been turned and the current regime's credibility with the people of Iran is badly damaged -- but we need to let this work out as it should -- with the Iranian people taking the lead.

Picture -- from NY Times.

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