Nevada Weighs In
This political season is becoming increasingly confused -- don't you think?
Well the results are coming in from Nevada.
Mitt Romney won big time in the Nevada GOP caucuses, with Ron Paul and John McCain coming in 2nd. Rudy is far back as usual. I can't see how he can use one primary (Florida) to catapult into a lead on Feb. 5. It's doable, I suppose, but he's increasingly becoming a non-factor. This seems to be a three horse race. But the GOP isn't my focus, of course.
On the Democratic side Nevada shows just how much union endorsements mean. Obama go that big endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union, but Hillary (who complained about how unfair all those Casino precincts were) got the vote. Obama did well, apparently in the less populated North (Reno), but not as well in Las Vegas. Key demographics, as I read it -- women and Latino votes went to Hillary. This could be a problem in the West.
Well the results are coming in from Nevada.
Mitt Romney won big time in the Nevada GOP caucuses, with Ron Paul and John McCain coming in 2nd. Rudy is far back as usual. I can't see how he can use one primary (Florida) to catapult into a lead on Feb. 5. It's doable, I suppose, but he's increasingly becoming a non-factor. This seems to be a three horse race. But the GOP isn't my focus, of course.
On the Democratic side Nevada shows just how much union endorsements mean. Obama go that big endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union, but Hillary (who complained about how unfair all those Casino precincts were) got the vote. Obama did well, apparently in the less populated North (Reno), but not as well in Las Vegas. Key demographics, as I read it -- women and Latino votes went to Hillary. This could be a problem in the West.
So things look like a 51-45 split.
The reality though is that things are still close, and it's now a 2 horse race. Edwards got only 4% of the state convention delegates. After South Carolina, he will have to evaluate his place in the race. At this point we don't know where his supporters will go --- they could put Hillary over the top, or make the difference for Obama. No one yet knows.
Am I disappointed? Yes! Am I ready to throw in the towel? No. South Carolina could be a useful jumping off point into the Feb. 5 contests. I concede that Hillary likely wins NY and CA, but if Obama keeps it close and does well in the others, he'll come out of the day with a large number of delegates, perhaps enough to pull ahead.
Comments
I think Bill Clinton is dividing the Party. He threw a fit after Iowa and before both NH and Nevada. This may help Hillary win, but at what cost? Losing in November? I doubt he will investigate voter suppression as he promised now that Hillary won.
Obama needs to stop relying so much on endorsements and go back to community organizing. He ought to be visiting everywhere throughout SC this week. Bill Clinton is promising to visit door to door in black neighborhoods in SC. He is planning to knock Obama out in SC and so avoiding any problem with Tsunami Tues. Obama MUST win SC!
Meanwhile, there has to be much Obama outreach among Latinos and women!
At this rate, we may actually get to May, when Kentucky votes, without a clear Democratic winner. My primary vote may count for the first time in over 20 years! As with Texas and California, both the Clinton and Obama camps are strong in KY. I think KY Dems also believe that we are better able to win in November with Obama than with Clinton. But the KY Dem. Party has only begun to rebuild after huge Republican gains beginning in '94. We gained one House Seat in '06 (so we have 2 House Dems and 4 GOPs in our 6 districts) and kicked out the GOP Governor in '07. But Bill Clinton carried the state in '92 and '96 and is still liked by many KY Dems. Also, KY Dems are not as liberal as Obama--or most are not outside of Louisville. Still, Obama helped campaign for many challengers in '06--and Clinton didn't. So, I don't know how this state will go in May.
I know KY Dems are hungry enough to rally behind the eventual nominee for the Fall.
But, unlike CA, KY's Democratic energies are also engaged in a Senate race. We have to try to do the world a favor by Ditching Mitch McConnell! Our best bet in the May primary is Louisville attorney Andrew Horne, a retired Lt. Col in the Marines, a vet of both Gulf Wars, who supported Gulf War I and Afghanistan, but not the current Iraq war and occupation. I think Obama's signature, "I am not against all wars, but I am against dumb wars--wars for the wrong reasons against the wrong enemies" would help Horne. Clinton's opportunism would not.
My neighborhood is divided between Obama and Clinton signs--and a few for Kucinich and Edwards (although the latter are starting to come down). Kucinich is loved because he came here in '02 and helped the Louisville Peace Action Committee speak out against the planned invasion of Iraq when no one else would. He inspired us with his vision of a Dept. of Peace and of universal single payer healthcare. Not even the pragmatists among us have forgotten that--so, we tend to support him emotionally long after we realize he has no realistic hope.