An Odd Turn of Events

After a night's sleep, I'm still trying to figure out how the polls could be so wrong. How could things change so quickly? It appears that those tears moved women to pull together for Hillary. In a state where women voters outnumber men, you have to have the women's vote to win, and where Obama got it in Iowa, Hillary got it last night.
The road forward will be difficult -- harder than I hoped but not impossible. Just look at last night. Hillary was supposed to be on the ropes and she came back. McCain was on the ropes last summer and he came back. Hillary learned something in the last few days. She put Bill to the side, brought out young faces to replace the old ones. At a cosmetic level if nothing else, she gave the campaign a face lift. I commend her for that, even though I still hope for a different outcome.
South Carolina and Nevada are the key contests, and Nevada may turn on what the Culinary Workers Union does. I'm still in shock, but the hope is there.
Last night I watched Obama speak. He acknowledged Hillary's win (at the beginning) and then gave the speech he had already intended to give. He conceded nothing but one loss. He spoke powerfully and eloquently and rallied the troops. I shall look for a clip of the speech to put on the blog. It was very powerful.

Comments

Anonymous said…
I told you the polls and the press were overstating things. They forgot to look at the percentage of undecideds and the people who said they were leaning to Obama, but were not yet committed. Also, as a few reports showed, most of the media were overstating the difference in crowd size, etc.
I expected Obama to win narrowly. There was no way that Hillary could have been in the lead in NH by 20 points from Jan to Nov and still ahead by 10 points in December and then lose by double digits.
This will be a long campaign. However, I now think Edwards should drop out. I say that reluctantly, but he and Obama are splitting the anti-Hillary vote. If Edwards' 17% had gone to Obama, his victory would have been huge.

This is better for the democracy. We do not need coronations--neither the media coronation of Clinton before she even announced last year, nor the post-Iowa coronation of Obama, etc. We need to carefully weigh candidates throughout the primaries. And NH voters don't like the media picking their candidates for them--and then piling on.
The youth turned out for Obama, but not in the numbers as in Iowa. And the gender gap for Clinton was huge.
The "Bradley effect" of more white voters saying they would vote for a black candidate than actually do might also have been a factor--it doesn't show up in a voting booth like in a caucus.

I hope Obama wins, but nothing should be just handed to anyone.
Robert Cornwall said…
Michael,

I was mystified by all of this, but it seems that had the pollsters polled Monday evening -- after the debate and after Hillary's "emotional" event -- we would have seen things differently.

I think two things happened -- it appears from reports that women in NH felt the need to back up one of their own -- to say our candidate is historic too. And apparently older women felt sympathetic to her as well.

I think that Biden and Dodd dropping out may have benefited Hillary -- I thought their voters would go to Richardson, but his numbers stayed flat.

As for Edwards -- At this point, especially if he loses SC to Obama, I don't know that he has a rationale for being in the race. His support in NH was pretty flat. I do think that some of his voters will go with Obama, but he also has strong Union support and blue collar workers and the poor have trended toward Hillary.

What seems to be true at this point is that there is no way this thing is over on Feb. 5. Obama should win Illinois and possibly NJ. Hillary should win NY. California is tricky. I think the key is the Hispanic vote -- which apparently has been trending toward Hillary.

The one area of mystery at this point is what Al Gore will do. If as I suspect he's not a big fan of Hillary -- his endorsement of Obama could swing things big time. If Edwards drops out, after SC Gore could make an endorsement in a 2 person race.
Anonymous said…
I agree that Edwards should now drop out and not divide the anti-Hillary vote. Gore cannot afford to endorse anyone if he wants to be able to get his cause through with whomever wins.

I don't think Biden or Dodd had many supporters in NH. Biden is an establishment candidate, so any of his support had to go to Hillary.

But the key is the huge Clinton lead on the ground game. Until 2 weeks ago, Obama was expected to lose here in a big way and would have LOVED to have come this close. Long term polling trends are usually more reliable than shortterm. Plus, polls conducted over a weekend are unreliable because you don't get a good sampling of typical people. Whose home to answer questions?

The press drank their own kool aid. The press does not like Clinton. Her campaign treats reporters shoddily. The left wing press thinks of her the way I do--as a hawk and a free trader. The right wing press hates and despises her and loved the idea that she was going down in flames--and so convinced themselves it was true.
NEVER COUNT THE CLINTONS OUT until it's over. They are great campaigners. I do not say that as a fan, but as a realist.

Obama can still win this. But it is not going to be handed to him--nor should it.

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