A Two Horse Race
As we get ready to go into February 5th the process has winnowed the choices down to just a few on each side. On the GOP side, its down to three, though John McCain seems to have the upper hand. But more about that in a later post, perhaps.
It's on the Democratic side that things have gotten stark. John Edwards is dropping out today. He's not, apparently signaled his readiness to endorse anyone, so it's not known how this will affect things. It could help Obama or it might not. Edwards has largely drawn his support from white male union folk. The question is, where will they go. If Edwards offers an endorsement, that might help. If he were to endorse Obama, which I hope he'll do, that could be the edge Obama needs.
February 5th will not be decisive, but it could prove to be a catalyst for either candidate. Looking at the map, Obama doesn't need to win either California or New York, he just needs to do well. Besides these states there are lots to pick from. Illinois should give Obama a clear victory. Places like Kansas, Arizona, and that southern tier should provide fertile territory for him as well. New Jersey could be interesting. With support from Ted Kennedy and Duval Patrick, Massachusetts is ripe for the picking and that could overflow into Connecticut. There is also the question of whether Bill Richardson will make an endorsement, and if so, whom? An endorsement of Obama could do wonders for him in the Latino community.
All in all, this is getting interesting. Hillary might have a strong organization and lots of connections, but lately things have been going Barack's way! See you Tuesday at the polls.
Back to John Edwards. I like him and supported him in 2004. I do think his time came and went in the time that passed -- although as John McCain has shown, you never know. I think he will be in some one's cabinet -- indeed, I expect deals are being offered in exchange for his support. So, stay tuned.