Tuesday, January 29, 2008

WOW, Hillary wins uncontested primary

Hillary has shown us the kind of person she is. She likes the rules as long as they favor her, she doesn't like them when they don't. If she thinks that she'll need the Michigan and Florida delegations, both of which had been banned by the party from being seated, she will. The party says, don't campaign, but in Michigan she kept her name on the ballot and beat uncommitted and Dennis Kucinich. Now she's won Florida, again, a contest that is without value. She'll crow about her victory -- a non-victory. She winks at the ban, but of course got votes by saying I'll seat your delegation.
Shame on You!!

2 comments:

Mike L. said...

I suddenly remembered why I've voted for 3rd party candidates in the last couple of elections. Please God, don't make me have to consider voting for Hillary!!!!

Michael Westmoreland-White, Ph.D. said...

I never agreed with the ban on Michigan and Florida delegates--especially Florida where the GOP-controlled legislature moved up the primary just to cause the Dems trouble with the DNC. I thought we should cut MI and FL to 50% of their delegates as the GOP did and allow campaigning. But, having agreed to the rules, Clinton had no right to try to change them. The Clintons always do this--work to change in mid-game if they are losing. It's shameful.

However, what is worrying is the result: Clinton won because of greater name recognition and early voting--just like CA has. Those who made up their mind recently, voted for Obama. So, if CA mirrors FL, then most of those early ballots and absentee ballots could be going for Clinton. And the CA delegates count.

Here's where the Dem use of proportional delegates help, though. In every district where Obama keeps Clinton under 60%, they get equal number of delegates. That's why Ted Kennedy will be campaigning hard for Latino votes in CA, NM, AZ. Obama doesn't have to win all of them--just keep Clinton under 60% in enough districts to stay close to her.

Obama has raised over $5 million online since his SC victory, but Clinton still has better organization because of all the relationships from the years when her husband was president. That's why it is hard to beat the establishment candidate. But if Obama can be competitive on Super Tuesday--staying within striking range and keeping her from winning enough delegates for the nomination. Then, he has time to win in the states following Super Tuesday.

But to keep the momentum going, he needs to come in first in several states on 05 Tues. and keep winning endorsements. He has to convince party bosses that he's the won who can win in November: That will mean: winning enough Latino and white votes and enough women's votes so that he can't be successfully painted as "just the black candidate." He has to do better with blue collar workers and older voters, too. It will mean winning some red states outright and with big numbers so that insiders are convinced that he can expand the party where she can't--and help them win a new working majority.

I think he can do it, but it will be an uphill battle the whole way. The media made it worse after Iowa when they made NH seem like it would be a cakewalk and prematurely pronounced the Clinton machine dead. If not for that, I think he would have won NH by a narrow margin--and some of this momentum would have started earlier.

I heard today that both Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) were mesmerized by the multiple Kennedy endorsement of Obama. Neither has endorsed. If either or both endorse Obama, I think a surprise win could happen in CA. He's won endorsements from 20 CA newspapers compared to 2 for Clinton--but Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) Clinton endorsement sure didn't help our boy.

I hear that Gov. Bill Richardson is expected to make an endorsement by the end of the week--something I didn't think he'd do. If he endorses Obama, I think Obama will win NM outright and may win a MUCH bigger Latino slice of the whole Southwest. If he endorses Clinton, it will be a big setback.

But if Richardson endorses Obama, maybe Al Gore and Jimmy Carter will, too--even though I have argued that they will stay neutral. (Carter, who is fluent in Spanish and worked very hard for human rights throughout Latin America is far more beloved by Latinos than he is by most of the Party.)

This will be a nailbiter.