Iran -- A Week Later

It has been a week since disputed elections were held in Iran. Those election "results" gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a landslide win, with results being released just hours after voting ended. Both the results and the speed with which they were released -- after all, how do you count 85 million paper ballots in a matter of a couple of hours and also make sure that everything is as it's supposed to be?

Neither the opposition candidates nor millions of Iranians accepted the verdict of the election officials, or of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Protests immediately began, bringing thousands of Iranians into the streets of Tehran and elsewhere calling for a new vote and condemning the current president as a dictator. While the protesters want a loosening of the rigid Islamic system, few are seeking a total overturning of the system itself. That could change, if the system ultimately proves to be corrupt and tyrannical. The person who has become the face of the opposition is an unlikely candidate for such a responsibility. Mir Hussein Mousavi is a former Prime Minister, who served competently in the 1980s, while the Ayatollah Khomeini was Supreme Leader -- and when the current Supreme Leader was President of the country. He's deeply rooted in the system, so it's unlikely he would want to overthrow it.

Today, at Friday Prayers the Supreme Leader gave both the recent election a thumbs up and warned against continued unrest -- essentially promising bloodshed if things continued. Now, to this point, while the government has been suppressing communication -- including texting and cell phone use, banning foreign media, etc, it has for the most part restrained extreme violence against the protesters. There was shootings earlier this week that left about 8 protesters dead -- though the people doing the shooting appear to have been militias, not the Revolutionary Guard. Some police and more likely the militias beat protesters, often on motor books with truncheons in hand. The protesters responded, largely non-violently, though some burned tires and threw stones. But, that could change quickly if the regime feels threatened. We don't know how the opposition leaders will respond -- some opposition groups have seen leadership arrested, though the major figures seem to be free at this point. It also appears that there is some struggle going on within the clerical elite.

I hope and pray that this doesn't end violently. I think it would do more harm to the current system, but rigid ruling systems often don't think about the long term, they think short term.

While it's possible that Ahmadinejad won the election -- it does appear that the government made sure that he won. The problem for the Supreme Leader is that he has bet his own leadership on the people believing him. It would appear, that for many, he has betrayed their trust. He may be Supreme Leader, but there is a group that can unseat him. We'll see how this plays out, but Iran is at a most critical junction in its history.

Now, let me say something about our own Government's response. I know that many want President Obama to speak forcefully, but I think his tone is right. We don't want to give the Iranian leaders an excuse to crack down on dissidents, blaming the problems on us. As far as I can tell this is an internal response, with no American assistance, nor has any been asked for. For us to intervene would undermine the moral authority of the opposition, and bring back ugly memories of 1953, when the CIA instigated a coup that overthrew the legally elected head of the country, and replaced him with the Shah. Memories are long!

The people of Iran, a people with a long and distinguished history, are in my thoughts and prayers as the continue on a journey with an unknown destination.