Endorsement Time
It is now, effectively, a two person race for the Democratic nomination.
It is only a matter of time before John Edwards follows Bill Richardson and throws in the towel. Edwards is a good man and likely a good candidate for a leading Domestic Policy cabinet position in a Democratic Administration -- Perhaps Labor or HUD, making them higher profile posts.
The question now is where does the Party Establishment and Senior Leadership come down.
Word is that John Kerry, the last Democratic Candidate for President, will endorse Barack Obama. This could be huge -- though time will tell.
Another potentially huge endorsement would be that of Al Gore -- and everyone is waiting to see if he'll step forward -- perhaps before Feb. 5 to anoint one or the other.
This from Tom Daschle about what could be happening in the coming days -- now that we're down to two Senators (Dodd and Biden being out):
Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader and an early backer of Mr. Obama, said that the Illinois senator is in position to quickly pull the party together behind his candidacy should his streak continue.
“Of all the candidates running, the easiest to rally around is Barack Obama,” Mr. Daschle said in an interview. “Because of his newness on the scene, he has not created the political opposition and enemies that come with extensive service in politics. He is a clean slate.”
Comments
Most of the Dem establishment will go with Hillary. After all, she IS the establishment candidate. The DLC still controls far too much of the Party.
If Obama wins, it will only be as a grassroots outsider, though he may attract solid labor endorsements, etc. and endorsements of the liberal wing of the Party. But it's naive to expect him to get endorsements from the the Party bosses. They want Hillary because they, like her, want to return to the '90s.
http://kyfriedpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/01/barack-obama-for-us-president.html
Oddly, since NH Clinton and Obama have traded roles--he's getting establishment and labor endorsements and she's going house to house in Nevada picking up votes like an outsider! What gives? I hope Obama doesn't forget his strength in community organizing!
No one should confidently predict anything after last week. But, I think that there will be ONLY close races from here on out. Unless someone makes a major mistake, there will be only close races at least until Tsunami Tues. I wish I knew how California was shaping up. I think Obama will (narrowly) take SC and Nevada. Clinton will get NY, Obama NJ and IL. After that, I just have ZERO idea whatsoever.
And then there are the "superdelegates" who are already pledged to Clinton--or are they?
After NH, I doubt Obama will take anything lightly. He needs the endorsements from party elders -- including important to note the Gov. of AZ Janet Napolitano. That is important -- to have a key woman leader.
California will be tough to gauge. There isn't a large African American population, a large Latino community, and Clinton is popular out here (that's why a Gore endorsement would be valuable). He really needs Bill Richardson to endorse him -- to counteract Henry Cisneros and Antonio Villiagoso (LA's mayor).
The other issue is Edwards' supporters. If he withdraws, who will they go to? If he stays in will he see diminishing returns, but draw from one or the other.
In SC, it will be interesting how the gaffes about MLK (Hillary) and calling Obama a kid (Bill) will effect her take among African Americans. Blacks are very upset about what has been said, which at best is a mistatement and worst a cynical attempt at race baiting.
All in all, this is going to be a nail biter for a while.
I have no idea where Edwards's supporters will go. I think if he drops out, he will endorse Obama. He may be trying to get enough delegates to play king/queenmaker at the convention: throwing his support to the one who adopts the most of his agenda. But that's dangerous: because it only works if he gets enough delegates that NEITHER of the top 2 can get the majority of delegates without him.