Purpose of Israeli Offensive?


The Israelis say that the reason for their assault on Gaza is to stop the rockets being fired by Hamas into Israel. But what is the end game? What will happen when this all grinds to a halt? Who will be in charge?

An article by Ethan Bronner in the New York Times raises these questions. With ground troops heading in, the most likely end result will be Israeli occupation once again. As Bronner points out, a stalemate or a negotiated settlement at this time will grant legitimacy to Hamas. They will be recognized as the de facto rulers of this area -- at least for now. The fact that the Israelis are bombing not only military targets or weapon's depots but government infrastructure suggests that they want to eliminate Hamas as an entity. But if they do so, who will fill the gap? One would suggest Fatah, but Fatah can't go in on the backs of the Israelis. If they do, they'll simply be seen as collaborators, and there is no effective opposition in Gaza that can take over.

So, either the Israelis occupy or they give recognition to Hamas. If so, then they must end the siege and begin allowing trade to begin again. Whether this was the intention or not, now that the game has begun, that seems to be the end.

Since the Israelis -- and the current US administration -- won't recognize Hamas, expect a long and deadly conflict. So, what will the cost be?

Comments

Anonymous said…
Background on Hamas... my neighbors are Muslim and from the middle east. I asked them their thoughts on Hamas and they will say with no apologies that its a trouble making entity that is funded by Iran. The issue is not religion, but power. The leaders use religion, but their goal is to keep people down by using religion. When I asked.. who signs up for Hamas? Its what you would expect..rural, less educated, poor, large families that sign up. In the south, you might ask who would join the KKK, same demographic.

None of this is to say Israel is right in their path through violence.. but just to make sure we are careful that we know the sides. Watch Iran.. they are instigating the trouble.

-Chuck
Anonymous said…
President Obama knows exactly what to do. I don't know why the President waits to act, but by the end of the month, President Obama will have the entire matter settled. Peace will reign. Everyone will be happy.
Robert Cornwall said…
I'm not suggesting that Hamas is a wonderful organization. They are similar to the Taliban.

But, that said -- we told the Palestinians to elect a government and due largely to Fatah incompetence (they ran more than one candidate per position) Hamas won the election. Then we said we don't like the results so we won't recognize them.

Right now, largely due to the repressive efforts of the governments in places like Egypt, groups like the Muslim Brotherhood have gained a large following -- sort of like the Ayatollah Khomeni did in Iran -- because they will stand up to the powers, if elections were held in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood would win.

We say we want democracy in the region, but if we're serious we can't impose the rules on them.
John said…
This probably sounds sacrilegious, but American style representative democracy is not for everyone. And its seems like Palestine is a perfect case in point. No institutional history, no clear understanding of how it works, except by those who see it a prop to be used in gaining power.

The simple purpose of the Israeli offensive is to stop the rockets, and if possible wipe out Hamas. The problem is that Israel cannot manage Gaza - the notion is ridiculous, a few thousand troops to control 1.5 million hostile citizens, with no one from the outsice or inside willing or able to step in and take control when the Israelis give up.

John
Anonymous said…
I agree, Pastor Bob. Hamas is comparable to the Taliban and while their motives may not be quite as onerous as the Taliban's, their open embrace of terror and violence is, to say the least, problematic.

However... the fact remains that they were democratically elected in an election that Bush insisted they hold.

That said, Anon makes a great observation about Iran. There are many players but I don't doubt that they are one of the primary ones instigating trouble in Gaza, albeit from afar.

Popular Posts