Tuesday, May 06, 2008

North Carolina Goes for Obama

North Carolina, the last big state to vote, has given Barack Obama a 14% victory. Polls suggested it was close and that Hillary had a chance. Well, things turned out differently. Barack Obama won 57%-43%. This is the "game changer" and Obama changed it!
As I write, Obama is slightly behind Hillary in Indiana -- with only 28% of the vote counted in Lake County. If things continue as they are right now, with him getting 75% of the vote he'll either win or be slightly behind. Hillary has already claimed victory, but it might not hold up!
My prediction is that tomorrow you will see a surge into Obama's camp of super delegates. They have been waiting for this moment. A surge of super delegates will mean that even with Florida and Michigan, she can't overcome his lead.
Barack Obama is the next President of the United States!


Michael Westmoreland-White said...

Well, I was hoping that Indiana would go narrowly for Obama, not Hillary, but I would have rejoiced to see him lose PA 49-51% !!!

The NC win was huge! Now, Clinton can no longer say that he's lost all the big states except IL or all the swing states, etc. (He'd previously won the swing states of WI and MO and was turning previously Red states INTO swing states.)

I think you are right that many superdelegates will swing his way between now and the weekend. If one of them is Robert Byrd, expect things to narrow in West VA (but him still to lose it.)

I keep hoping he will travel to W VA and KY and give major speeches on Appalachian poverty and how turning from the black gold of coal to green gold of new eco-tech can revitalize those areas AND save the mountains. He still won't win W VA or Eastern KY, but he'll get closer (which could allow the big population centers of KY--Louisville and Lexington, plus Western KY near IL like Bowling Green and Paduca to pull off a KY win for him). Further, if he then comes through for Appalachia during his presidency--just because it's the right thing to do--He'll then win those areas in '12. Appalachia has been hard for him because of historic white racism. But no one has paid any attention to Appalachia since Bobby Kennedy. If Obama does right by it in his presidency, expect to see the Appalachian parts of OH, PA, VA, NC, KY, WV, TN, and northeast GA to be full of "Obama-Billies" in '12!

I still worry about the race and gender split for the Fall. If Hillary doesn't drop out soon and let us heal the party, McCain could win by default. Only Democrats can lose an election tailor made for our victory.

But this was HUGE! NC's margin of victory has regained the Obama momentum. He'll win at least Oregan, Montana and South Dakota of what's left and may squeak out narrow victories in KY and Puerto Rico. I will be knocking on doors for Obama from now until 20 May!

Michael Westmoreland-White said...

Delegate count update: Obama, 1852 and Clinton 1700. 176 needed for nomination.

NC erased PA in terms of the gains Clinton made in narrowing both Obama's popular vote lead and delegate lead. She cancelled all events today, fueling speculation that she was considering dropping out. Then she scheduled an event in WV, again.

NBC reported that Gen. Wesley Clark, one of her major supporters, called her and urged her to drop out. (He would make a good Obama VP. Obama needs white males too much in the Fall to go with a woman or Latino, now, sadly. My advice, give first refusal to Gov. Ted Strickland (D) of Ohio. Yes, he was a Hillary supporter. But with him as running mate, OH is out of McCain's reach in AUGUST or sooner and Obama can concentrate on winning elsewhere.)

Pastor Bob Cornwall said...

Michael, I'm quite in agreement -- Obama needs to go after Appalachia -- and do the right thing for them. Of course, Hillary might drop out before next week -- or at least before KY. I think the dirty politics at least might end.