A Bump in the Road?

So, did Barack get knocked around in West Virginia?
Yes, he did, but I think he expected this to happen -- while Hillary was drumming up support here, Obama was in Michigan and Missouri, two much larger states in November, shoring up support. But, hey, John Edwards didn't do too badly, though. At the end of the night, she'll get a nice little trove of delegates, maybe as many as 17 or 18, while he gets 10 or so. But, that isn't going to put a dent in things. So, what did we learn?
1. Hillary is popular in West Virginia -- indeed, the exit polls suggested that her husband is still a beloved figure there.
2. Barack Obama likely won't win West Virginia in the Fall. WV may have more registered Democrats than Republicans, but it is older, more rural, and less educated than most Democratic swing states.
3. The Demographics were set against him. 40% of the electorate was over 65 and about 12% under 30.
4. Obama will need to find a VP who can connect in the rust belt. It looks more and more like a person such as Ted Strickland will get the nod. Now, Strickland is older than I had thought -- 67 -- which would likely mean he wouldn't run for Prez in 8 years. It also might mean that 4 years from now, if Obama is having a successful presidency he might switch running mates and call on someone like Kathleen Sebelius, who could then run in 2016.
5. WV is going to be old news quickly. He looks like a sure winner in Oregon. I'm from Oregon, and the Willamette Valley population center should give him a tidy win.
No, its not over yet, but Hillary isn't going to get all that much steam out of this. In fact, it would seem that WV didn't even know that any previous elections had taken place. Oh, well!

Comments

Anonymous said…
Obama is now 146 delegates away from absolute nomination victory. He should get it by the end of the month.

The truly interesting race yesterday was the special election in Mississippi's 1st District--a GOP stronghold. It was vacated by Wicket (R) appointed to serve out Trent Lott's Senate term. Wicket will face a tough election in Nov. against former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). Meanwhile, Travers Childers (D) picked up this House seat despite the GOP spending 1.8 million, trying to link Travers with Obama as "too liberal," and flying down Dick Cheney!

This makes 3 Dem pickups in special elections for GOP House strongholds. Not good news for GOP chances in November. Also, it means that Miss. is in play for Obama in November (though a long shot). 36% of Miss. is black. If they turn out in droves and Obama gets even 40% of the white vote--McCain loses Mississippi. Same story in Louisiana.

However, when doing delegate math, I give those 2 states to McCain so as to play conservative. We still better count on winning 3 of the big 4 swing states (OH, MI, PA, and FL) if we want to be sure to win the White House.

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