What if Michigan had voted in the rules?

That's the question Andrew Sullivan raised and then pointed me to the Fivethirtyeight.com site. This site analyzes the electoral process. So, as a future Michigan resident -- about 5 weeks to go -- I wonder how things would have been different in a contested primary?

This is important because Hillary Clinton apparently is arguing that Obama should be credited with no delegates -- even though she only won about 54% of the vote in an uncontested election. Just imagine, you're essentially the only candidate on the ballot -- no Obama or Edwards or Richardson or Biden and you can only muster a 10 point spread. She's arguing that if she doesn't get her way the Michigan voters would be disenfranchised, but note than only about 7.8% of Michigan voters went to the polls.

Well this web site calculates what might have happened using similar districts in neighboring states. With that in mind, the likelihood is that given similar voting rates, Obama would have won by about 4% points and taken about 65 of the 128 delegates available. Just think if Michigan had voted sometime in February, after Super Tuesday. What would have happened?

I hope that the committee and the super delegates take this into consideration. By giving Hillary a majority of Michigan delegates, the committee is giving her the benefit of the doubt, because reality could have been disastrous for her.