Looking to November

It's hard to believe that we're having this argument as to who should be the nominee in November. Even if the DNC Rules committee gives Hillary everything she wants, and that's doubtful, she still couldn't catch Barack in the delegate race.

So, her argument has to do with electability, and to prove her point, she points to charts and maps that suggest right now she's better able to beat John McCain than Obama is. But a lot can change once the election hits full throttle. For one thing, Hillary won't be there (hopefully) undermining Obama's credibility. Another reason why things will likely change is that Democrats will no longer be forced to consider two scenarios. There will be one candidate and so they'll have to decide -- Barack or McCain. If you're a woman, are you going to support McCain when he has pledged to appoint supreme court justices along the line of Alito, Roberts, and Scalia? If you want the rights of women protected, do you vote for a candidate that tells women that if they face bias they should get more education? When the dust settles that's an unlikely scenario. There is time to heal, if Hillary and Bill will settle down and let things play out as they likely will.

My sense is that once all the primaries are over next Tuesday, the majority of undeclared super delegates will make their preferences known. Barack is already close to nailing this shut, and even if the goal posts are extended at the end of the contest -- which is hardly fair, but even that won't change the dynamics -- the results should be the same. Word is that Nancy Pelosi, who will chair the Convention will step in and end this thing -- probably by calling for all super delegates to declare their position, and making it clear that delegates won, not some mythical popular vote, should be the standard. With that in mind, the victory goes to Barack Obama.

Once all of this drama is over, Obama can choose a VP, maybe even select some key cabinet positions, and get started with the campaign. When that happens, when he can devote himself fully to November, I think you'll see things change. McCain is, after all, not a perfect candidate. He can't keep a staff, because so many of them have lobbying ties -- something that undercuts his "straight talk/reformist" identity. He has the baggage of George Bush to contend with -- and that includes a very unpopular war and a challenging economy, and GW wants to go out and campaign for him. If you remember in 2000, one of Al Gore's biggest problems was his need to break with a scandal plagued Bill Clinton. Whatever you think of the Scott McClellan revelations, they don't help McCain's case.

So, let's just wait and see what happens!