More Post Mortems from WV

The math is clear -- Barack Obama will be the nominee. But, Hillary Clinton's win in WV does point out some issues that must be dealt with. None of the problems Obama faces are insurmountable. He will face a candidate that has chosen to identify himself with George Bush on most issues. Talking environment won't win him Oregon (I'm from Oregon, so I think I have some sense of the voters there).

A look at the map suggests that Obama should do fairly well west of the Mississippi. States like Utah and Idaho seem safe bets for McCain. But Obama should do well in Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico. He has a chance in the Dakotas and Montana. He could take Kansas and Iowa as well. He'll do well in the northern tier and might take a state or two in the South. Where he's weakest is in that so-called rust belt. I'm less worried about West Virginia than Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and not just because their bigger.

When you look at West Virginia's exit polls, they spell trouble for Obama but they were so skewed toward Clinton that something else is at work. Here are couple of things I noticed:

• Clinton Brand sells well. Huge majorities said that Bill Clinton made a difference. That suggests that if Obama wants to do well in WV he needs to make some campaign stops in WV. In fact, he might want to send Clinton there for a month or two to sell his candidacy. If Clinton is true to his word that could make the difference.
• Race is a factor in WV. Not only is WV whiter than most, but the numbers saying that race made a difference was among the highest, if not the highest. I saw examples of union leaders and local officials speaking of his race as a negative, even suggesting that he was a Muslim. These were mayors of towns.
• WV has no urban region. It is small town, even information deprived. The fact that John Edwards got 7% is astounding. He was only getting 13% when he was running. It's like they didn't get the message that he'd dropped out. Not only that but Mitt Romney and Rudy G got a sizable number of votes. That's just sort of bizarre.
• It's just my feeling, but Obama needs to contest Kentucky. He may not win, but he has to narrow the gap. Kentucky has rural areas, for sure, but it also has several urban pockets that he can do well in. Oregon will give him a nice boost, and the states following may be paying more attention and want to get on the band wagon.
• Obama needs to choose a VP who can help him overcome his weaknesses with certain pockets of voters, without suggesting that he's a weakened candidate. Choosing Hillary isn't going to do it for him, but either Ed Rendell or Ted Strickland can help -- probably the latter.

As I heard Howard Dean say a while back. The key to success is the willingness of the losing candidate to go to bat for the winner. If the Clintons are half-hearted, it could be a problem. If they show the same tenacity in the General as they have here, they can be of great assistance. We have a week until the next round. Super delegates and money will play an interesting role. If Obama keeps them rolling in, he'll have it sewn up by Puerto Rico. And if the money continues drying up, the question will be how far can Clinton go on fumes?